Where will the deal flow come from? Ingrassia cited several bullish factors, including the push by companies to burnish their long-term valuations in the face of artificial intelligence (AI), and the private equity industry’s need to sell long-held portfolio companies and return profits to their investors.
Will uncertainty in the global economy slow M&A?
Ingrassia cautioned that uncertainty about the global economy can prompt company leaders to hold off on short-term decision-making about M&A. Given the energy crisis stemming from the conflict with Iran, Ingrassia says it is difficult to foresee how this latest bout of volatility may play out.
“There is humility in this year’s market,” he says. “The level of confidence in predictions is less than usual.”
Still, Ingrassia noted that the Goldman Sachs US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is close to the level set when US tariffs jumped last May. And 2025 marked one of the best years ever for M&A.
“We’ve gotten used to uncertainty,” Ingrassia says. “It’s the new normal.”
The M&A market hit a high in 2021 as interest rates fell close to zero during the Covid pandemic and acquirers took advantage of the low cost of capital. Dealmaking activity declined more than 41% over the following two years before rebounding in 2024 and 2025, according to Dealogic and Global Banking & Markets
An interesting facet of this cycle, he says, is how fewer deals are generating more value. Looking at pure M&A transactions worth more than $500 million, Ingrassia found there were 1,080 deals in 2025, about 14% fewer than 2021. Yet the value of M&A transactions last year was 3.5% higher, according to Dealogic and Global Banking & Markets. “There’s room to grow,” says Ingrassia.
Why big deals augur more growth for ‘bread and butter’ M&A
The upward trajectory of big deals—those worth more than $10 billion—is a sign of momentum, Ingrassia says. In 2025, big deals jumped 24% over the prior high in 2021, according to Dealogic data.
Big deals have historically led the rest of the M&A market because large acquirers have more resources to research and pursue multiple transactions simultaneously.
“Big companies can act faster and they foreshadow what the rest of the market is going to do,” says Ingrassia. This usually means an increase in smaller “bread and butter M&A” is on the way.