FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Silver has come under
renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s
refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the
Strait of Hormuz.
Most of the losses were
then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to
put forward a proposal to end the war but didn’t lift the blockade. There’s no
deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new
situation until the bombs start dropping again or they finally reach a deal.
For now, the short-term
bias is neutral to bearish as we head into the weekend without clear signs of
improved relations and the global rate hike expectations keep capping the
upside. The downside should remain limited amid positive expectations due to
the indefinite ceasefire.
Looking ahead, a resolution
should trigger a rally towards the 96.00 level, while a return to fighting will
likely send prices into new lows.
SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
Silver – daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that silver fell below the key 78.00 level and opened the door for new lows.
The sellers piled in on the break lower targeting the major upward trendline
around the 67.00 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the
96.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend
the drop into the next trendline around the 55.00 level.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
Silver – 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum.
The first natural target for the sellers should be the swing level at 72.55.
That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
level to position for a pullback into the 78.00 resistance. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 68.00
handle next.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
Silver – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum on this
timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the
pullback into the next downward trendline around the 77.00 level. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs, but the market
focus remains on US-Iran headlines.