Since Bitcoin’s bottom, the average altcoin has gained 10% more than $BTC, he noted. That is far removed from the kind of broad outperformance associated with previous alt seasons.
The coins that are ahead make a short list. Zcash has done well since the start of the year, while Venice and Quant have also outperformed more recently. The privacy coin is up more than 726% over a year, and Quant jumped 530% within days, from $59 to $370, before settling near $255, but Liu stressed that these are isolated examples.
Not even $XRP has outperformed Bitcoin, while Ethereum, Solana and $BNB are barely ahead.
“That’s why I say altcoins are actually still very cheap. And we are not confirming a full-on alt season type of scenario yet. We are just barely getting started,” Liu explained.
Asked how far off it was, the analyst answered “nowhere close.”
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Bitcoin itself has been stuck. It was rejected at $87,000 on Monday, bounced off $85,000 and has moved sideways between that level and $86,000 since, with a market cap of $1.72 trillion and a nearly 58% share of the total crypto market.
Larger altcoins have been sluggish over 24 hours. ETH holds above $2,700 and $XRP sits at $1.50. $BNB, Solana, Dogecoin and Chainlink are slightly lower, and RAIN was one of the biggest losers in 24 hours, dropping over 7%, while FIL and ZRO gained 8% and 10%, respectively.
Why Isolated Rallies Can Be Misleading
Liu also warned traders against waiting for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before looking at altcoins. He noted that this pattern worked in 2017 and late 2020, but failed in 2024 when Bitcoin broke its previous record while many altcoins continued to lose ground against it. His approach is therefore to trade individual altcoin rallies rather than wait for a broad signal.
In a separate video, the market watcher called $83,000 Bitcoin’s daily pivot, with a break below that possibly sending it toward bull market support at $78,000, while holding above leaves room to move past $87,000.