Bitcoin traders are betting the cryptocurrency has further to run this month, but few see a return to six figures, according to prediction market Polymarket.
The market, which asks what price Bitcoin will hit in August and resolves on 1 September, put the odds of the token reaching $100,000 at just 1%.
The chance of touching $80,000 was priced at 5%, while $77,500 carried a 10% probability and $75,000 sat at 21%.
The most closely watched threshold, $72,500, was given a 46% chance, up 29 percentage points on the day, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment.
The wager on $67,500 firmed to 59%, up nine points.
The repricing followed a sharp move higher. Bitcoin jumped nearly 8% on Wednesday to around $69,500, its highest level since early June and its steepest single-day climb since March.
The surge forced more than $1 billion in short-position liquidations in about an hour, the biggest wipeout of bearish bets in records dating back to 2021.
Traders had spent weeks pushing the token into the low $60,000s, leaving those betting on further declines badly exposed when the reversal came.
The rally drew fuel from a White House meeting with crypto executives and a Treasury move to expand bond buybacks, which lifted Ether and crypto-related equities alongside Bitcoin.
Whales added roughly $2.9 billion in Bitcoin over 60 days, Bloomberg reported, offering a genuine tailwind beyond the forced buying.
Caution remains, at this stage, the watchword. Bitcoin was still trading below its 200-day moving average near $69,900, a level chartists treat as the marker of an unconfirmed trend reversal.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen billions in net outflows across 2026, and the Fear and Greed Index remained in “fear” territory even as prices climbed.
With volume on the Polymarket contract topping $11 million, the crowd’s verdict is clear: a strong August, but not a record-breaking one.