Wall Street firm Bernstein says Bitcoin could fall if the U.S. Senate delays the CLARITY Act. The firm believes the delay could also hurt the wider crypto market. Investors may sell Bitcoin and altcoins if lawmakers fail to vote before the August recess.
The CLARITY Act is one of the biggest crypto bills in the United States. It aims to give the industry clear rules for the first time.
Senate Has Little Time Left
The U.S. House approved the CLARITY Act in 2025 with support from both parties.
Since then, Senate committees have updated the bill. But lawmakers have not scheduled a final vote.
The Senate is expected to begin its August recess later this week. That leaves only a small window to pass the bill.
Prediction market Polymarket now gives the bill a 31% chance of passing this year. The odds have dropped as lawmakers continue to debate parts of the proposal.
Why the CLARITY Act Matters
The CLARITY Act would create clear rules for crypto in the United States.
It would split oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.
The bill would also:
- Set rules for DeFi projects.
- Add guidelines for stablecoins.
- Protect blockchain developers.
- Explain which regulator oversees different digital assets.
Many crypto companies say these rules would make the market safer. They also believe clear rules would attract more investors.
Bernstein Expects a Short-Term Drop
Bernstein says a delay could trigger a quick selloff.
Investors often react fast when major crypto bills are delayed. That could push Bitcoin and many altcoins lower in the short term.
The firm called this a “knee-jerk reaction.” In simple terms, the market could fall before investors have time to study the news.
Long-Term Outlook Is Still Positive
Bernstein is still bullish on Bitcoin.
The firm expects the market to improve later in 2026. It believes Bitcoin could gain strength in late Q3 and early Q4.
The analysts also expect U.S. regulators to keep working on crypto rules.
Even if Congress delays the bill, the SEC and CFTC can still release new guidance through Project Crypto. That could give the industry more clarity while lawmakers continue debating the bill.
Crypto Industry Wants Action
Many crypto leaders want the Senate to vote before the recess.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says the bill would protect users and help the United States stay ahead in digital assets. Grayscale has also asked lawmakers to move the bill forward.
Large financial firms support the proposal as well. That list includes BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs. Many believe the CLARITY Act would help bring more money into the crypto market.
Bitcoin Could Stay Volatile
Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 after a weak week.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or more before the end of 2026.
Others think prices could fall to $55,000–$60,000 if the bill is delayed and uncertainty continues. That is why investors are watching the Senate closely this week.
What This Means
The CLARITY Act could shape the next move for Bitcoin.
A successful vote could boost confidence across the crypto market. A delay could lead to a short-term selloff.
Even so, Bernstein believes the market can recover later this year as the United States moves closer to clear crypto rules.
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