24 Quick Thoughts On The Markets And Economy

The economy is doing pretty well, earnings growth is great, and the stock market just set new all-time highs.

In recent weeks and months, much of the major news we’ve gotten has been consistent with ongoing market narratives, which we’ve covered in this year’s free and paid newsletters.

But I know we’re all busy, and most of us aren’t able to read through every newsletter.

So for your convenience, I’ll do a speedrun through some of the data and insights shared in some of these newsletters that you might find helpful today.

• History continues to confirm that the stock market can trend higher even as the market’s leaders struggle.
• Many of the popular arguments for why this year’s stock market rebound “doesn’t make sense” are getting the story wrong.
• Most of the time, the stock market has bigger concerns than the next quarter-point move by the Fed.
• Some people are worried about earnings growth cooling. There’s evidence that the market has been pricing in this concern for a year.
• Energy costs are nothing compared to labor costs for most big, publicly traded companies.

• For stocks, the direction of interest rates isn’t as important as the rate of change.
• Things that make obvious economic sense aren’t always consistent with what happens in the stock market.
• ‘Investing in the stock market at all-time highs has produced slightly better returns than investing during other periods.
• Investing in non-U.S. stock markets doesn’t always reduce your exposure to the U.S. economy.
• All but two of the world’s major stock markets are more concentrated than the U.S.