BarcelonaThe US economy has been feeling the effects of the war in the Middle East and the escalating price of oil for some time now. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March confirms this and reveals how the impact of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching the pockets of Americans, as it soared to 3.3%, the highest level since May 2024. This rise coincides with market forecasts, which already expected a considerable escalation compared to February’s 2.4% as a consequence of high gasoline prices.
The energy index was the main driver of the increase, with a 10.9% rise in March, fueled by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, which accounted for almost three-quarters of the overall index’s monthly increase.
Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile items like energy and unprocessed food, rose to 2.6%, one tenth higher than in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This trend is still moderate because it has not yet fully spread throughout the economy.
In any case, on a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.9% in the third month of 2026, triple the previous increase of 0.3%. Core inflation registered a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, at the same level as February, according to the BLS.
The White House’s chief economist, Kevin Hassett, has admitted the negative effects of the war and has predicted that once “normal pace” is restored to transit in the Strait of Hormuz, it is foreseeable that “the situation will return to normal.” “What we expect, and what futures markets are anticipating, is a rapid reduction in energy prices once we manage to reopen the strait. Currently, there are vessels crossing, but they are doing so at about 10% of the usual pace,” he told Fox Business.