CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator rose by 6.7 points to 44.2 points in July, amid the confirmation of Romania’s investment-grade rating by rating agencies. At the same time, the Current Conditions Indicator increased by 8.1 points to 36.9, while the Expectations Indicator rose by 6.1 points to 47.9. However, CFA Romania warns that the risk of recession remains high.
“The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania increased by 6.7 points in July, to 44.2 points. The Current Conditions Indicator rose by 8.1 points to 36.9, while the Expectations Indicator increased by 6.1 points, reaching 47.9 points,” CFA Romania said in a press release.
The expected inflation rate over a 12-month horizon, for August 2027, declined compared with the previous survey to 6.32%. Some 90% of participants expect the inflation rate to fall over the next 12 months compared with its current level.
“The confidence indicator increased in July, amid the confirmation of Romania’s investment-grade rating by the rating agencies. Consistent with the improvement in confidence in the economy, inflation expectations also improved significantly. Expectations regarding the exchange rate and interest rates moved in the same direction. However, the economy will continue to stagnate, with the risk of recession remaining present,” said Adrian Codirlașu, president of CFA Romania.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, 84% of participants expect the leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, while 16% expect it to remain unchanged. The average exchange-rate forecast for the six-month horizon is RON 5.2901 per euro.
For residential property prices in cities, 69% of participants expect stagnation over the next 12 months, while 21% anticipate a decline. At the same time, 74% of respondents consider current prices overvalued, while 11% see them as fairly valued.
The forecast for Romania’s 2026 state budget deficit declined by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous survey, with the average estimate standing at 6.2% of GDP.
CFA Romania said expectations for economic growth in 2026 remained around 0%, pointing to a high risk of recession. Public debt as a share of GDP is expected to increase to 63% over the next 12 months.
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, the survey also included a question on expectations for Brent crude prices over the next 12 months. Participants expect an average price of USD 87 per barrel, although uncertainty remains extremely high, according to the association.
The survey has been conducted monthly by CFA Romania for more than 15 years and is designed to measure financial analysts’ expectations regarding economic activity in Romania over a one-year horizon. It is carried out during the final week of each month among CFA Romania members and candidates for Levels II and III of the CFA examination.