Senior Research Associate Marcelo Carvalho, for example, highlighted how geopolitical realignment is reshaping risk premia for emerging markets, with capital allocation increasingly reflecting strategic alignment and geopolitical positioning alongside fundamentals.
Rising debt levels and financial volatility remain recurring themes that continue to influence policy effectiveness. Throughout 2025–26, our contributors warned that high debt service burdens are constraining fiscal space across many low‑ and middle‑income countries (LMICs). Athene Laws, Economist in the IMF Africa Department, drew on research highlighting that while debt levels have stabilised in parts of Sub‑Saharan Africa, the burden of interest payments – often consuming over 12 % of government revenues – limits spending on development and social programmes and exposes economies to new shocks. The structure of debt, including a shift toward costlier commercial finance, further complicates policymaking amid global interest rate volatility.
Crucially, post‑crisis transformation stories, such as Sri Lanka’s, illustrate how effective and credible monetary policy and institutional reform have helped to underpin durable recovery. Deputy Central Bank Governor Chandranath Amarasekara underscored this in his analysis of Sri Lanka’s long‑term structural adaptation and credible governance in its post-crisis recovery and economic adjustment. Taken together, this forward‑looking post-crisis perspective suggests that digital innovation, financially inclusive macroeconomic frameworks, diversified trade, financial linkages and strong institutions will be pivotal in navigating the complex global macroeconomic environment in 2026 and beyond, balancing inflation, growth and resilience.
Structural change in finance has also featured prominently over the past year, reflecting trends in digitalisation and financial market innovation. Insights, including from the Governor of the Central Bank of Somalia, Abdirahman M. Abdullahi, highlight how digital services and technological integration are recalibrating economies. The Governor emphasised the importance of harnessing digital finance and payment systems to strengthen stability and inclusion in fragile contexts.
More broadly, innovations such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and cross‑border payment systems offer potential to broaden financial inclusion and enhance market resilience, lowering transaction costs and expanding capital access.
Commodity-price volatility and inflation have also been part of the macro-economic brieifngs. They have documented how energy, food and agricultural input price swings – often triggered by geopolitical incidents and supply chain disruptions – continue to feed into inflation and trade imbalances, complicating central banks’ responses.
Climate‑linked inflation risks have increasingly intersected with broader macroeconomic narratives. Principal Research Fellow Jodie Keane and Senior Research Officer, Yohannes Ayele, have highlighted how extreme weather events and transitional climate policies – such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – affect prices, competitiveness and investment flows. These shocks accentuate inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints, particularly in vulnerable economies where agriculture is a major employer and export sector.
Across these themes, our briefings consistently emphasise resilience through structural and inclusive policy frameworks. Senior Research Fellow Linda Calabrese’s work on China’s 2026–2030 policy agenda explores how Beijing’s strategic direction will shape global trade, finance and the uptake of innovative technology in low‑ and middle‑income economies.
Furthermore, contributions stemming from research collaborations with Jane Mariara and Jorge Davalos (Partnership for Economic Policy) and Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans) highlight global experiences, including those of Kenya and Egypt in managing global shocks – demonstrating that resilience is not only about macroeconomic buffers but also structural reforms and institutional capacity to deliver targeted support. Private sector engagement to spur investment and economic transformation remains key to growth in economies’ breakthroughs, as noted by Sosthenes Kewe in Tanzania.
As economies confront the ongoing geopolitical volatility alongside financial and economic fragmentation, the need for proactive and adaptive macroeconomic policy has never been greater. Monetary policy balanced with fiscal and social policy – as underscored by the former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, Stephany Griffith‑Jones and her former advisor, Jorge Arenas – shows that credible monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy management must be aligned with social commitments to avoid undermining growth and vulnerable populations. Striking this balance has underpinned Chile’s policy paradigm.
One year on from our first issue, these macroeconomic themes of global price shocks and rising debt, remain deeply relevant. As we look beyond April, policymakers continue to grapple with persistent uncertainty while seeking new opportunities for adaptive strategies that reconcile fragility, fragmentation and resilience, both at the G20 and at the country level.