The rural economy across America’s heartland is expanding, but growth remains uneven as manufacturers face persistent headwinds, according to Creighton University’s latest economic report.
The Mid-America Business Conditions Index hit 56 in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion across nine states from Minnesota to Arkansas. Any reading above 50 signals growth, but the gains mask underlying challenges in key sectors.
Food processing took a significant hit, shedding roughly 8,000 jobs over the past year — a 3.4% workforce reduction. Nebraska absorbed nearly half those losses. The region has lost manufacturing jobs in 13 of the past 15 months, though only one in 13 companies reported actual layoffs in June.
Inflation continues squeezing margins. Creighton’s wholesale price gauge remained elevated in June, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve. Ernie Goss, who directs Creighton’s economic forecasting group, doesn’t expect a rate cut when the Fed meets in late July.
Trade remains soft, with export orders below growth neutral for 10 straight months as trading partners respond to U.S. tariffs with their own barriers. About one in three supply managers say they’re “passing the full cost of tariffs and the war in Iran straight through to their customers.”
The bright spot? Business confidence jumped sharply to 50% in June from 42.3% in May. Goss expects “cheaper energy and smoother supply chains to lift that optimism even higher in the months ahead” as energy prices fall following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
This synopsis was created with the use of AI.