State economist gives mixed economic forecast at Kruse Way Economic Forum
Published 5:00 am Thursday, April 30, 2026
Oregon’s Chief Economist Carl Ricadonna presented a mixed bag of economic headwinds during the semi-annual Kruse Way Economic forum on Wednesday, April 29.
“My office has a fiercely guarded, long-standing tradition of not even bipartisanship, but apolitical behavior. So we are the umpires in the ball game. We call balls and strikes against the home team, against the away team,” said Ricadonna.
The Kruse Way Economic Forum was founded in April 2001 as a venue for expert presentations and discussion of social, economic and political issues affecting the Portland Metropolitan area and the Pacific Northwest.
At the beginning of his presentation, Ricadonna asked the room how many people thought the United States was in, or headed for, a recession. About half the room raised their hands.
In the course of his presentation, Ricadonna refuted, with data, the claim that many economic indicators point to a recession, instead showing a slow increase in growth since the pandemic rocked financial markets and typical economic indicators.
However, there were two major uncertainties that Ricadonna called out as possible shocks: Changes in the labor market, both from overhiring during the pandemic and from the impacts of AI, and geopolitical conflicts’ impact on energy prices.
“For 25 years, we’ve been dealing with lots of different energy shocks. Energy shocks can push the US economy into recession. It certainly happened in the 1970s twice. It happened in 1990, ahead of the first Gulf War; that recession was largely driven by energy prices and in 07, 08, 09while the housing bust was the big thing that led us into the global financial crisis. These very high energy prices were one of the catalysts that helped to pop the housing bubble,” said Ricadonna.
He added later: “The shock in gas and oil prices we’re seeing now is still less than what we saw when Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022 – that energy price spike slowed the economy down. It did not take us into recession … When I shocked the model, the levels that kind of get us to a recession are about $150 per barrel on oil, which would be a national average of about $5.50 gallon on gasoline.”
Currently, the national average gas price is $4.25, much lower than Oregon’s average.
He said, based on cautious consensus among economists, that there is a 30% chance of a national recession due to these uncertainties. The stock market is, perhaps, the biggest factor refuting the direction of recession with the S&P 500 up 17% over the last year.
Oregon’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has been worse than that of many other states, in part due to out-migration since 2020. Oregon lags the national average in real gross domestic product and saw employment decline last year, largely due to the impacts of tariffs and trade.
“We had a real lousy first lap last year because tariffs were rolling out all trade-oriented states, and Oregon is one of the top five trade-oriented states in the country. All those trade-oriented states had really lousy starts of the year because of the tariff concerns and whatnot,” said Ricadonna. “It comes as little surprise, then, that the unemployment rate is running higher in Oregon relative to the national trend. Right? Slower economic output means fewer workers. If you’re slower than everyone else, you’re going to have even more of a labor market soft patch as a result.”
While the Portland metro area has struggled to maintain growth, he said that secondary metros like Eugene and Bend have supported the shift away from large urban centers.
He also highlighted the demographic challenges Oregon is facing. Oregon has seen a slight increase in population because of in-migration, but birth rates in the state and nationally have fallen significantly.
“We have already crossed the threshold where we have more seniors and school-age children, and the gap is only going to get worse,” said Ricadonna. “Demographics are destiny.”