Source: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, Macrobond and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of July 1, 2026. Series are shown as an average across eight major geopolitical shock episodes identified using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index: the Korean War onset (1950 Q3), Cuban Missile Crisis (1962 Q4), Vietnam escalation (1965 Q3), Yom Kippur War/Oil Shock (1973 Q4), Iran Hostage Crisis (1979 Q4), Gulf War/Desert Storm (1990 Q3), 9/11 attacks (2001 Q3), and the Russia-Ukraine war (2022 Q1). For each episode, T+0 is the shock quarter, and each series is rebased to 100 at T-4 (four quarters before the event) to show the cumulative path from one year before to three years after the shock. Past performance does not predict future returns and does not guarantee future results, which may vary.