- The NIFTY Index this week performed a sharp reversal from the April 3rd trough (22182.6) to the close on Wed April 8th (23997.3).
- Barring new geopolitical shocks, according to our model the rally could continue for 2-3 weeks and reach well past 25k, possibly 26k.
- Our model identified two possible uptrend pathsthat the index may followIF the rally continues (a BIG ‘IF’, given the current significant geopolitical uncertainty).
- ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) is currently trading at 21.00 — between P50 (22.2) and P75 (20.9) targets on our support/”go LONG” model.
- Privatization status: CSRC approval pending — see David Blennerhassett April 9 insight on Smartkarma for detailed analysis.
- Our model shows a very oversold stock, the top path analogues indicate the sell-off may be over this week or the next.
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) posted March revenue +45% YoY; stock cleared our model’s P75 resistance (1995) on Friday. Strong momentum but acceptable risk/reward for longs at current levels.
- Our model paths analogues suggest 2–4 week rally duration is plausible. A pullback toward 1,950 early this coming week would represent a buy-the-dip opportunity before rally continuation.
- We project short-term profit targets at 2,200–2,300, as long as the stock closes > 2050 this coming week.
- Weekly price action driven by a midweek surge which put a shine on internal participation.
- Trading activity was subdued due to the shortened week, with volumes declining in line with typical holiday conditions.
- Implied volatility declined across both index and single stock options, reflecting reduced activity and a quieter trading environment.