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May 8, 2026 – NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data on Thursday released the April 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Gas price growth expectations retreated appreciably from a spike in March. Labor market expectations were largely stable in April. Perceptions of credit access and expectations for future credit access both deteriorated, but delinquency expectations improved. The survey was fielded from April 1 through April 30, 2026.
The main findings from the April 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon. They were unchanged at 3.1% for the three-year-ahead horizon and at 3.0% for the five-year-ahead horizon in April. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) increased at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the three-year-ahead horizon.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one-year-ahead horizon and decreased at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.9% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 5.1%. Commodity price change expectations decreased by 0.8 percentage point for food to 5.2%, by 0.1 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.6%, by 0.2 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 8.8%, and by 1.1 percentage points for rent to 6.0%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7% in April, slightly above its 12-month trailing average of 2.5%.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.4 percentage points to 43.9%. This is the highest reading of the series since April 2025.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.2 percentage point to 14.6%, just above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.5%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 18.2%.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 0.1 percentage point to 46.0%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.1%.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income eased slightly from 2.9% to 2.8% in April.
- Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%, its highest reading since July 2023. The increase was driven by those with at most a high school education and with annual household incomes below $50,000.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to get credit and a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months receded by 0.9 percentage point to 11.4%, its lowest reading in over two years. The decrease was concentrated among those without a college degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.4%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.2 percentage point to 10.0%, its highest reading since June 2023.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased to 26.7%, its highest reading since November 2024.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations improved slightly, with a decline in the share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now outweighing a slight decrease in the share expecting a better financial situation.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 2.1 percentage points to 38.4%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York