Federal economists raise GDP forecast significantly
Keystone-SDA
According to the federal government’s economists, the Swiss economy is likely to perform significantly better than previously expected. They are therefore raising their forecast substantially.
The federal government’s expert group has revised its forecast for 2026 to predict growth in real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sporting events) of 1.7%, up from the previous estimate of 0.9%, as announced by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday. The forecast for 2027 of 1.6% has been confirmed.
According to the statement, the reason for the revision is the latest data from the Swiss economy, which showed surprisingly high growth. GDP grew exceptionally strongly in the second quarter.
+ Swiss economy grows surprisingly fast in Q2
‘A certain counter-movement’
However, according to federal experts, this growth is unlikely to continue unchecked. On the contrary, a “certain counter-movement” is expected in the second half of the year.
This is because, according to the press release, almost half of the strong growth in the second quarter was attributable to the highly volatile value added in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. “This is likely to have overstated the underlying economic momentum,” the statement continues.
Weakening of the franc helps
Nevertheless, the Swiss economy remains fundamentally on a path to recovery. The recent depreciation of the franc is also helping in this regard, as it benefits the export sector.
As for inflation, the federal government’s economists continue to forecast a rate of 0.6% for both 2026 and 2027. The unemployment rate is forecast at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.0% for 2027.
The expert group emphasised that the conflict with Iran, high energy prices and ongoing trade policy uncertainty pose significant risks to the economy. Persistently high oil prices could therefore place a significant strain on the global economy, and according to the statement, inflation in Switzerland would also be higher as a result.
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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist.