US fund manager Steve Neamtz says investors in the S&P 500 hold a concentrated technology wager, with ten stocks now making up about 40% of the index at record highs.
The warning matters to any saver with exposure to US index funds, including Ghanaian pension schemes and retail investors who treat the S&P 500 as shorthand for broad American economic strength.
Neamtz, President of Yorkville America Equities, told NewsGhana in a written interview that the index’s record run conceals serious weakness underneath. He said ten names drove 69% of gains in the most recent rally, while by his count 331 constituents trade more than 20% below their all time highs. In his view, investors who believe they own a diversified portfolio are in practice betting on a handful of megacap technology companies.
Independent data backs the concentration point. RBC Wealth Management’s research shows the ten largest companies accounted for a record 40.7% of the S&P 500’s weight by the end of 2025, roughly double their share a decade earlier, with Nvidia alone representing nearly 8% of the index. Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin has separately warned that if historical patterns hold, today’s concentration points to much lower index returns over the next decade than a less concentrated market would deliver.
Where Neamtz departs from the consensus is in his prescription. He argues the real American growth story sits in defense, domestic energy and Sun Belt real estate, sectors he says barely register in a standard index. He points to US defense spending crossing $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal 2026, a rise of more than 17% in a year according to the Arms Control Association, and to a Pentagon research and development budget he puts at $179 billion. He believes the market still prices defense as a procurement business hostage to elections, even though spending has risen every year for a decade under both parties. “That gap between perception and reality is where the opportunity lives,” he said.
On artificial intelligence (AI), Neamtz steers attention away from chip designers and software platforms toward the physical layer: data centre cooling, power distribution, grid upgrades and the energy producers feeding a buildout he likens to constructing the largest city in history. He cited Harvard Belfer Center projections that US data centre electricity consumption will nearly double within a few years, and predicted energy will come to be treated as foundational infrastructure rather than a commodity sector.
Readers should weigh the source alongside the argument. Yorkville America Equities markets thematic funds, including the Truth Social branded fund family, positioned around the very sectors Neamtz champions, so his thesis aligns with his firm’s commercial interest. Defenders of passive investing also note that index weights simply reflect where profits have accrued: the ten largest companies trade at richer multiples partly because of exceptional margins and durable competitive advantages, and two decades ago only Microsoft from today’s top ten held a comparable position, evidence that the index reshuffles its own leadership over time.
Neamtz’s views are his own and do not constitute investment advice. Investors weighing US equity exposure should consult a licensed adviser, since both concentration and the sectors offered as alternatives carry the risk of loss.