The Nifty 50 needs another 9.3% gain to recover its January 2026 peak, even after rebounding from its March low, according to the latest study by Abakkus Mutual Fund.
For investors holding Nifty 50 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds, the question is whether the current gap from the peak is a reason to exit or whether staying invested could help them participate in a potential recovery.
Here’s what investors need to know.
How far is the Nifty 50 from its previous peak?
| Nifty 50 level | Value |
| January 2026 peak | 26,329 |
| March 2026 bottom | 22,331 |
| 31 August 2026 level | 24,080 |
| Rise from March bottom | 7.8% |
| Decline from January peak to August 2026 | 8.5% |
| Return required to recover January peak | 9.3% |
Source: Abakkus Mutual Fund, Data as on 31 August 2026
The numbers show that the index has already recovered part of the decline, but investors who bought near the January peak are still sitting below their purchase level.
The Nifty 50 had fallen to 22,331 in March 2026 before recovering to 24,080 as of 31 August 2026. This represents a 7.8% rise from the bottom.
However, the index remains below its peak of 26,329 recorded on 2 January 2026 and would need another 9.3% gain to return to that level.
It is important to note that the index has declined 8.5% from its January peak, but it needs a 9.3% gain from its current level to return to 26,329. This is because the recovery is calculated from a lower base.
Abakkus’ historical analysis highlights why timing such decisions can be difficult.
Should you sell Nifty 50 ETFs or index funds now?
According to Abakkus Mutual Fund, investors who remained invested in the Nifty 50 TRI between April 2005 and August 2026 earned higher annualised returns than those who missed some of the market’s strongest days.
The Nifty 50 TRI (Total Return Index) accounts for both changes in index value and dividends, giving a more complete picture of returns.
| Investment approach | Nifty 50 TRI CAGR |
| Stayed invested on all days | 13.55% |
| Missed best 5 days | 11.21% |
| Missed best 10 days | 9.65% |
| Missed best 30 days | 4.61% |
| Missed best 50 days | 0.94% |
Period: April 2005 to August 2026, Source: Abakkus Mutual Fund, Data as on 31 August 2026
Staying fully invested throughout the period of April 2005 to August 2026 in the Nifty 50 TRI delivered a robust CAGR of 13.55%.
However, missing just the 5 best days dragged the returns down to a CAGR of 11.21%. For investors who missed the best 50 days, returns flatlined to a CAGR of 0.94%.
This suggests that moving out of the market during periods of weakness can carry an opportunity cost if the investor subsequently misses a sharp recovery.
For Nifty 50 ETF and index fund investors, this highlights the difficulty of timing exits and re-entries, particularly when markets can recover sharply within a few trading sessions.
For long-term investors, missing the market’s best-performing days can be costly, as these days are difficult to predict in advance. Staying invested through periods of volatility may help investors avoid missing such sharp recoveries.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
Sheetal Goel is a Content Producer at Livemint, where she covers corporate developments, personal finance, business trends, markets, and SEBI-related updates. She focuses on simplifying complex financial concepts and presenting them in a clear, reader-friendly manner, thereby helping audiences better understand investment trends, personal finance, and market developments. Her writing focuses on making finance more accessible to everyday readers while maintaining clarity, accuracy, and relevance.
She holds a degree in Economics (Hons.) along with an MBA in Finance, which has helped her develop a strong foundation in financial analysis, market understanding, and business reporting. Before joining journalism, she worked with finance and broking firms, where she closely followed market developments, investment strategies, and evolving industry trends. This practical exposure strengthened her understanding of financial markets. She has also written content across multiple formats and platforms, including YouTube, LinkedIn, and Instagram.
Over time, she has developed expertise in covering market-linked stories, investor-focused topics, and regulatory updates in a simplified yet informative style. She also enjoys reading and listening to Hindi poetry, reflecting her appreciation for literature and creative expression beyond the world of markets and numbers.