Standard Bank has published a bullish macroeconomic assessment of the giant Rovuma liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in northern Mozambique, which has been described as the largest commercial project in Africa’s history but which has faced protracted delays following a deadly insurgency in Cabo Delgado in 2021.
The onshore project has a current estimated capital cost of $30-billion and has been expanded to a yearly production of 18-million tonnes from an initial nameplate of 15-million tonnes.
The project is premised on gas reserves in Area 4 of the offshore Rovuma basin, where 125-trillion cubic feet of gas has been discovered across both Area 1 and Area 4.
Rovuma LNG has been under development since 2017, but its progress has been delayed twice.
The first delay was the result of the Covid pandemic, while the second arose because of a protracted insurgency, which led to thousands of families being separated and forced to flee.
The violence led to a force majeure declaration in April of that year by the Mozambique Rovuma Venture, which is backed by global energy majors ExxonMobil, Eni, and CNPC.
ExxonMobil, which is currently the operator of Rovuma LNG, lifted the force majeure declaration in late 2025 and the Standard Bank report moves from the assumption that a final investment decision will be taken this year.
Produced in partnership with consultancy firm Conningarth Economists, the report also assumes first gas from the modular units starting in 2030. The project will ultimately involve 12 LNG units able to produce at a yearly rate of 1.5-million tons.
Standard Bank, which produced a similar assessment in 2019, focuses on the impact of the expanded Rovuma LNG project on Mozambique.
However, it notes that the project forms part of a wider ‘northern industrialisation’ vision that also includes the onshore Mozambique LNG project, the floating Coral LNG projects, as well as multiple domestic gas prospects.
The new report assesses the Rovuma LNG impact for the period from 2025 to 2056 and concludes that it could add $11-billion to Mozambique’s GDP yearly.
In 2024, Mozambique’s GDP stood at $23-billion.
In addition, it states that the project could create about 151 000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs and generate about $4-billion in yearly fiscal revenues.
The country’s yearly real economic growth rate, the report adds, could rise from 3.3% to 4.1% a year, while also suggesting that Mozambique’s sovereign wealth fund could accumulate a real balance of up to $81-billion by 2056.
Speaking at the report’s launch, Standard Bank Mozambique CEO Bernardo Aparício said the project could have a transformative impact on the economy.
“The effect on GDP will be significant,” Aparício said.
“Fiscal revenues will play a critical role in reducing sovereign debt and strengthening public investment, while also driving economic growth.”
The report concludes that Mozambique has an opportunity to become a major natural gas supplier from the 2030s onward and could also represent a supply diversification opportunity to countries in the Asia-Pacific that have been affected by recent supply disruptions following the conflict in Iran.
“To that end, we would encourage Mozambique to follow the examples of Australia (mining resources) and New Zealand (agricultural and food products) to become a major supplier to Asia-Pacific, and by extension developing a major domestic supporting industry (employing hundreds of thousands of indigenous citizens) to underpin the LNG exports.”